I've been holding these altcoins for 1-2 years, some since late 2023/early 2024. I believed in the "fundamentals" and thought I was making smart picks. Here's where I stand today:
My Current Bag
| Coin | Current Worth | Loss (%) | Loss ($) |
|---|---|---|---|
| TIA (Celestia) | $8.89 | -91.02% | -$91 |
| SEI | $41.77 | -54.83% | -$146 |
| WIF (dogwifhat) | $40.85 | -83.31% | -$205 |
| BONK | $20.03 | -79.93% | -$80 |
| VANRY | $21.24 | -78.68% | -$79 |
| SUSHI | $6.85 | -86.16% | -$43 |
| ARB (Arbitrum) | $16.06 | -33.86% | -$34 |
| S (Sonic/ex-FTM) | $11.79 | -88.12% | -$87 |
| TOTAL | $167 | -82% | -$766 |
What I've Learned (the hard way)
1. "Good project" ≠ "Good investment"
ARB and TIA have great technology. Arbitrum has $10B+ TVL and processes billions in transactions. Celestia's modular blockchain thesis is still valid. But guess what? The token price keeps bleeding because of massive VC unlock schedules.
- ARB: ~92M tokens unlock every month until March 2027
- TIA: VCs dumping until October 2026-2027
You're fighting against billions of dollars of institutional selling pressure while holding the bag.
2. Memecoins are pure gambling
I bought WIF and BONK, thinking "meme season" would return. It didn't. Old memes rarely recapture their glory.
3. Dead narratives stay dead
SUSHI is a relic from 2020. Uniswap won. VANRY is too small to compete with Solana/Base.
4. Opportunity cost is real
While I diamond-handed these bags, I could've been in BTC, ETH, or SOL — coins that actually recovered.
My dilemma
With only ~$167 left:
- Option A: Sell everything, harvest tax losses, wait for better entries
- Option B: Consolidate into 1-2 conviction plays (maybe keep ARB/S and dump the rest)
- Option C: Diamond hands and pray for 2027 when unlocks end
What would you do?
I'm genuinely looking for honest opinions, not hopium. If you've been in a similar situation, what did you decide?
Not looking for "should've bought BTC" comments, I know. Looking for actionable advice on what to do NOW with what I have.
submitted by /u/ustype
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### 现实检验：持有这8种山寨币1-2年，损失82%。该怎么办？
在加密货币投资的道路上，经历波动和损失是常态。作为一名经历过市场起伏的投资者，我在过去的1-2年里持有了一些山寨币，某些甚至是自2023年底或2024年初开始持有。起初，我对这些币的“基本面”充满信心，自认为做出了明智的选择。然而，现在的情况让我不得不面对残酷的现实：我的投资组合已经下降了82%。
#### 我的现状
| 硬币 | 当前价值 | 损失（%） | 损失（$） |
| — | — | — | — |
| TIA (Celestia) | $8.89 | -91.02% | -$91 |
| SEI | $41.77 | -54.83% | -$146 |
| WIF (dogwifhat) | $40.85 | -83.31% | -$205 |
| BONK | $20.03 | -79.93% | -$80 |
| VANRY | $21.24 | -78.68% | -$79 |
| SUSHI | $6.85 | -86.16% | -$43 |
| ARB (Arbitrum) | $16.06 | -33.86% | -$34 |
| S (Sonic/ex-FTM) | $11.79 | -88.12% | -$87 |
| **总计** | **$167** | **-82%** | **-$766** |
#### 我所学到的（苦涩的教训）
1. **“好项目”不等于“好投资”**
尽管ARB和TIA有着出色的技术，ARB的总锁仓价值超过100亿美元，每月处理数十亿美元的交易。但我发现，代币价格不断下跌，原因在于巨额的风险投资解锁计划。每月约920万个ARB代币将在2027年3月之前解锁，而TIA的风险投资者将一直抛售至2026年末，这使我在持有这些代币时面临巨大的抛售压力。
2. **迷因币纯属赌博**
我曾购买WIF和BONK，希望“迷因季节”会回归，但事实证明这一期待是徒劳的。往昔的迷因很少能重现昔日的辉煌。
3. **死去的叙事永远不会复生**
SUSHI已成为2020年的遗迹，Uniswap已赢得市场。而VANRY在与Solana/Base的竞争中也显得过于渺小。
4. **机会成本是真实存在的**
在坚持持有这些山寨币的同时，我本可以投资于BTC、ETH或SOL等真正能够回升的币种。
#### 我的困境
在当前仅剩约167美元的情况下，我面临几个选择：
**选项A**：抛售所有资产，利用税收损失等待更好的入场机会。
**选项B**：将资金集中到1-2个有信心的投资上（或许继续持有ARB/S，抛掉其它）。
**选项C**：坚持持有并祈祷2027年解锁结束时会有转机。
#### 你会怎么做？
我真心希望能听到诚实的意见，而非盲目的乐观。如果你曾经面临过类似的情况，你是如何做决定的？我并不期待“应该买BTC”这样的评论，因为我已经意识到了。但我希望得到的是关于我现在该如何处理现有资产的切实建议。